DeKalb Schools recently released 7-year enrollment forecasts for the Dunwoody and Chamblee clusters as well as all the other schools in the district. How does the school district forecast enrollment?
Enrollment Forecasting Process
Mobility (Survival) Rates
A mobility or survival rate is based on the ratio of students in a grade to students in the previous year and previous grade. Here is an example of a Mobility Rate Table (Dunwoody ES):
Births and Kindergarten
The average ratio of Kindergarten students to Births (6 years prior) in each elementary attendance area forms the basis for the forecasted Kindergarten.
Housing – Yield Rates
Students generated by future development are projected using the average students per unit (yield rate) residing in previous developments of similar type and location.
Example:
A new townhome development with 100 units in Dunwoody ES attendance area
would be expected to yield:
16 Students at Dunwoody ES (100 x 0.1578)
3 Students at Peachtree MS (100 x 0.0279)
6 Students at Dunwoody HS (100 x 0.0624)
1 Student attending another DCSD school (100 x 0.0111)(e.g. Chamblee MS Magnet)
3 Students attending private schools (100 x 0.0277)
Housing Development
The school district uses a number of methods to determine future housing developments. They ask local jurisdictions to send them data on upcoming developments. They regularly have meetings with local jurisdictions to discuss upcoming developments. They pay AxiomMetrics for their insight into upcoming developments.
Students Living To Enrollment Forecast
After forecasting all students living in an attendance area, assumptions are made, based on historic trends, for the number of residents attending other DCSD schools and the number of non-resident attendees coming into the school.
DeKalb County School District (DCSD) has updated the long-term enrollment forecasts for each school year from the Fall of 2019 through the Fall of 2025.
METHOD
The forecast uses a method of population forecasting called “cohort‐survival analysis”. In this method, future enrollment is forecasted based on historic matriculation patterns from grade to grade, birth rates, future housing development, and historic patterns of school‐choice enrollment.
I don’t believe these estimates numerous developments coming down the pipe including the High Street Development which includes 1,500 condos and 1,500 apartments.
As recently as April 3, 2018, DCSD planning insisted that the current Peachtree MS 8th grade was the peak of enrollment. However, the administration didn’t have an answer for why then they were putting more trailers there.
Even with these conservative estimates, Dunwoody HS (DHS) enrollment is expected to exceed 2,300 by 2021. The current enrollment capacity for DHS is 1,505. The district plans on a 600 seat building addition to be completed in 2022. DHS will be at least 200 seats overcapacity on the day the seat additions are completed.
How are DHS Building Additions a good idea?
I don’t understand how adding 600 seats to DHS every 5 years is a good idea. The band practices in the basement, there is no choir room and all the common spaces were built to accommodate 1,500 students. The DHS building additions will not include any renovations or additions to existing media rooms, art rooms, hallways, gymnasium, locker rooms, administrative offices, storage, or any other core spaces or surrounding infrastructure.
Dunwoody Elementary School
DES is forecasted to reach almost 1,600 students over the next few years. The Austin ES rebuild will affect enrollment across the district.
Austin Elementary School Rebuild
In August, the district announced a delay in the opening of the new Austin ES. Redistricting process will be delayed one year: the process will occur in Fall 2019 (instead of Fall 2018) and the redistricting will be effective for Fall 2020 (instead of Fall 2019). The Austin ES existing school will move to the new building over Christmas break (2019-2020) for a partial (only existing Austin ES students) opening in January 2020. The redistricted students would then attend the new Austin ES in August 2020.
OVERVIEW
DeKalb Schools district wide enrollment grew from 99,091 in the Fall of 2012 to a peak of 101,801 in the Fall of 2014. Enrollment began to decrease in the Fall of 2015 and continued to decrease in the Fall of 2016 and 2017 before falling to 99,212 in the Fall of 2018. The DCSD Long‐Term Forecast projects enrollment to continue to decrease to 97,026 enrolled in 2025.
ENROLLMENT BY REGION
Enrollment in Region 1 (Dunwoody, Chamblee, Cross Keys clusters) is expected to increase from 19,452 in 2018 to 20,010 in 2025 (+2.9%). Enrollment in Region 2 is expected to decrease from 17,906 to 17,414 in 2024 (‐2.7%). Enrollment in Region 3 is expected to decrease from 10,963 to 9,941 (‐9.3%). Enrollment in Region 4 is expected to decrease slightly from 9,895 to 9,860 (‐0.4%). Enrollment in Region 5 is expected to decrease from 12,357 to 11,512 (‐6.8%). Enrollment in Region 6 is expected to decrease from 7,138 to 6,713 (‐6.0%). Region 7 is expected to decrease from 7,329 to 7,194 (‐1.8%).
KEY – DEFINITIONS All – All students residing in the attendance area Enrollment – All students enrolled in the school, regardless of residence ResAttendee – All students residing in the attendance area and enrolled in the school
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Thomas Sowell
Barry Goldwater
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“Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in pursuit of justice is no virtue.”